Eclipse Statistics

Consider a very large collection of lunar-solar syzygies. For such a collection, we expect the lunar argument of latitude, $F$, the lunar mean anomaly, $M_M$, and the solar mean anomaly, $M_S$, to be statistically independent of one another, and randomly distributed in the range $0^\circ$ to $360^\circ$. Using this insight, we can easily calculate the probability that a new moon is coincident with a solar eclipse, or a full moon with a lunar eclipse, using Eq. (125) and the criteria (150)-(154). For a new moon we find:

Probability of total solar eclipse:	$4.2\%$
Probability of annular solar eclipse:	$7.7\%$
Probability of partial solar eclipse:	$6.6\%$
Probability of any solar eclipse:	$18.5\%$

For a full moon we get:

Probability of total lunar eclipse:	$5.2\%$
Probability of partial lunar eclipse:	$6.5\%$
Probability of any lunar eclipse:	$11.7\%$

Thus, we can see that, over a long period of time, the ratio of the number of total/annular solar eclipses to the number of partial solar eclipses is about 9/5, whereas the ratio of the number of partial lunar eclipses to the number of total lunar eclipses is approximately 5/4. Furthermore, the ratio of the number of solar eclipses to the number of lunar eclipses is about 11/7. Since there are 12.37 synodic months in a year, the mean number of solar eclipses per year is approximately $12.37\times 0.185\simeq 2.3$, whereas the mean number of lunar eclipses per year is about $12.37\times 0.117\simeq 1.4$. Clearly, solar eclipses are more common that lunar eclipses. On the other hand, at a given observation site on the earth, lunar eclipses are much more common than solar eclipses, since the former are visible all over the earth, whereas the latter are only visible in a very localized region.

Table 40: Mean motion of the lunar-solar elongation. Here, $\Delta t = t-t_0$, $\Delta \bar{D}= \bar{D}-\bar{D}_0$, $\Delta \bar{F}_M= \bar{F}_M-\bar{F}_{M\,0}$, $\Delta M_S = M_S - M_{S\,0}$, and $\Delta M_M= M_M-M_{M\,0}$. At epoch ( $t_0= 2\,451\,545.0$ JD), $\bar{D}_0 = 297.864^\circ$, $\bar{F}_{M\,0} = 93.284^\circ$, $M_{S\,0} = 357.588^\circ$, and $M_{M\,0} = 134.916^\circ$.

$\Delta t$(JD)	$\Delta \bar{D}(^\circ)$	$\Delta \bar{F}_M(^\circ)$	$\Delta M_S(^\circ)$	$\Delta M_M (^\circ)$	$\Delta t$(JD)	$\Delta \bar{D}(^\circ)$	$\Delta \bar{F}_M(^\circ)$	$\Delta M_S(^\circ)$	$\Delta M_M (^\circ)$
10,000	227.491	173.503	136.002	329.930	1,000	310.749	269.350	265.600	104.993
20,000	94.982	347.005	272.005	299.859	2,000	261.498	178.701	171.200	209.986
30,000	322.473	160.508	48.007	269.788	3,000	212.247	88.051	76.801	314.979
40,000	189.964	334.011	184.010	239.718	4,000	162.996	357.401	342.401	59.972
50,000	57.455	147.513	320.012	209.648	5,000	113.746	266.751	248.001	164.965
60,000	284.947	321.016	96.015	179.577	6,000	64.495	176.102	153.601	269.958
70,000	152.438	134.519	232.017	149.506	7,000	15.244	85.452	59.202	14.951
80,000	19.929	308.022	8.020	119.436	8,000	325.993	354.802	324.802	119.944
90,000	247.420	121.524	144.022	89.366	9,000	276.742	264.152	230.402	224.937
100	139.075	242.935	98.560	226.499	10	121.907	132.294	9.856	130.650
200	278.150	125.870	197.120	92.999	20	243.815	264.587	19.712	261.300
300	57.225	8.805	295.680	319.498	30	5.722	36.881	29.568	31.950
400	196.300	251.740	34.240	185.997	40	127.630	169.174	39.424	162.600
500	335.375	134.675	132.800	52.496	50	249.537	301.468	49.280	293.250
600	114.449	17.610	231.360	278.996	60	11.445	73.761	59.136	63.900
700	253.524	260.545	329.920	145.495	70	133.352	206.055	68.992	194.550
800	32.599	143.480	68.480	11.994	80	255.260	338.348	78.848	325.199
900	171.674	26.415	167.040	238.494	90	17.167	110.642	88.704	95.849
1	12.191	13.229	0.986	13.065	0.1	1.219	1.323	0.099	1.306
2	24.381	26.459	1.971	26.130	0.2	2.438	2.646	0.197	2.613
3	36.572	39.688	2.957	39.195	0.3	3.657	3.969	0.296	3.919
4	48.763	52.917	3.942	52.260	0.4	4.876	5.292	0.394	5.226
5	60.954	66.147	4.928	65.325	0.5	6.095	6.615	0.493	6.532
6	73.144	79.376	5.914	78.390	0.6	7.314	7.938	0.591	7.839
7	85.335	92.605	6.899	91.455	0.7	8.534	9.261	0.690	9.145
8	97.526	105.835	7.885	104.520	0.8	9.753	10.583	0.788	10.452
9	109.717	119.064	8.870	117.585	0.9	10.972	11.906	0.887	11.758

Table 41: Anomalies of the lunar-solar elongation. The common argument corresponds to $M_M$, $2\bar{D}-M_M$, $\bar{D}$, $M_S$, and $2\bar{F}_M$ for the case of $q_1$, $q_2$, $q_3$, $q_4$, and $q_5$, respectively. If the argument is in parenthesies then the anomalies are minus the values shown in the table.

Arg. ($^\circ$)	$q_1(^\circ)$	$q_2(^\circ)$	$q_3(^\circ)$	$q_4(^\circ)$	$q_5(^\circ)$	Arg. ($^\circ$)	$q_1(^\circ)$	$q_2(^\circ)$	$q_3(^\circ)$	$q_4(^\circ)$	$q_5(^\circ)$
000/(360)	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.000	-0.000	090/(270)	6.289	1.327	-0.044	-2.075	-0.119
002/(358)	0.237	0.046	0.045	-0.074	-0.004	092/(268)	6.268	1.326	-0.090	-2.073	-0.119
004/(356)	0.473	0.093	0.089	-0.148	-0.008	094/(266)	6.239	1.324	-0.136	-2.067	-0.119
006/(354)	0.709	0.139	0.133	-0.221	-0.012	096/(264)	6.203	1.320	-0.181	-2.060	-0.119
008/(352)	0.943	0.185	0.177	-0.294	-0.017	098/(262)	6.160	1.314	-0.226	-2.050	-0.118
010/(350)	1.176	0.230	0.219	-0.367	-0.021	100/(260)	6.109	1.307	-0.270	-2.037	-0.118
012/(348)	1.408	0.276	0.261	-0.440	-0.025	102/(258)	6.051	1.298	-0.313	-2.022	-0.117
014/(346)	1.637	0.321	0.301	-0.511	-0.029	104/(256)	5.986	1.288	-0.354	-2.004	-0.116
016/(344)	1.864	0.366	0.340	-0.583	-0.033	106/(254)	5.915	1.276	-0.394	-1.984	-0.115
018/(342)	2.088	0.410	0.376	-0.653	-0.037	108/(252)	5.836	1.262	-0.432	-1.962	-0.114
020/(340)	2.310	0.454	0.411	-0.723	-0.041	110/(250)	5.751	1.247	-0.468	-1.937	-0.112
022/(338)	2.527	0.497	0.444	-0.791	-0.045	112/(248)	5.660	1.230	-0.501	-1.910	-0.111
024/(336)	2.741	0.540	0.475	-0.859	-0.049	114/(246)	5.562	1.212	-0.533	-1.881	-0.109
026/(334)	2.951	0.582	0.504	-0.926	-0.052	116/(244)	5.458	1.193	-0.562	-1.850	-0.107
028/(332)	3.157	0.623	0.529	-0.991	-0.056	118/(242)	5.348	1.172	-0.589	-1.816	-0.106
030/(330)	3.358	0.663	0.553	-1.055	-0.060	120/(240)	5.233	1.149	-0.613	-1.780	-0.103
032/(328)	3.554	0.703	0.573	-1.118	-0.063	122/(238)	5.111	1.125	-0.633	-1.742	-0.101
034/(326)	3.746	0.742	0.591	-1.179	-0.067	124/(236)	4.985	1.100	-0.651	-1.702	-0.099
036/(324)	3.931	0.780	0.605	-1.239	-0.070	126/(234)	4.853	1.074	-0.666	-1.660	-0.097
038/(322)	4.111	0.817	0.617	-1.297	-0.074	128/(232)	4.716	1.046	-0.678	-1.616	-0.094
040/(320)	4.285	0.853	0.625	-1.354	-0.077	130/(230)	4.575	1.017	-0.687	-1.570	-0.092
042/(318)	4.454	0.888	0.631	-1.409	-0.080	132/(228)	4.428	0.986	-0.692	-1.522	-0.089
044/(316)	4.615	0.922	0.633	-1.462	-0.083	134/(226)	4.277	0.955	-0.695	-1.473	-0.086
046/(314)	4.770	0.955	0.632	-1.513	-0.086	136/(224)	4.122	0.922	-0.693	-1.422	-0.083
048/(312)	4.919	0.986	0.627	-1.562	-0.089	138/(222)	3.963	0.888	-0.689	-1.369	-0.080
050/(310)	5.061	1.017	0.620	-1.609	-0.092	140/(220)	3.799	0.853	-0.682	-1.314	-0.077
052/(308)	5.195	1.046	0.609	-1.655	-0.094	142/(218)	3.632	0.817	-0.671	-1.258	-0.074
054/(306)	5.323	1.074	0.596	-1.698	-0.097	144/(216)	3.462	0.780	-0.657	-1.201	-0.070
056/(304)	5.443	1.100	0.579	-1.739	-0.099	146/(214)	3.288	0.742	-0.640	-1.142	-0.067
058/(302)	5.555	1.125	0.559	-1.778	-0.101	148/(212)	3.111	0.703	-0.620	-1.082	-0.063
060/(300)	5.660	1.149	0.537	-1.815	-0.103	150/(210)	2.931	0.663	-0.596	-1.020	-0.060
062/(298)	5.757	1.172	0.511	-1.849	-0.106	152/(208)	2.748	0.623	-0.571	-0.958	-0.056
064/(296)	5.847	1.193	0.483	-1.881	-0.107	154/(206)	2.562	0.582	-0.542	-0.894	-0.052
066/(294)	5.929	1.212	0.453	-1.911	-0.109	156/(204)	2.375	0.540	-0.511	-0.829	-0.049
068/(292)	6.002	1.230	0.420	-1.938	-0.111	158/(202)	2.184	0.497	-0.477	-0.764	-0.045
070/(290)	6.068	1.247	0.385	-1.963	-0.112	160/(200)	1.992	0.454	-0.441	-0.697	-0.041
072/(288)	6.126	1.262	0.348	-1.985	-0.114	162/(198)	1.798	0.410	-0.404	-0.630	-0.037
074/(286)	6.176	1.276	0.309	-2.006	-0.115	164/(196)	1.603	0.366	-0.364	-0.561	-0.033
076/(284)	6.218	1.288	0.269	-2.023	-0.116	166/(194)	1.406	0.321	-0.322	-0.493	-0.029
078/(282)	6.252	1.298	0.227	-2.038	-0.117	168/(192)	1.207	0.276	-0.279	-0.423	-0.025
080/(280)	6.278	1.307	0.184	-2.051	-0.118	170/(190)	1.008	0.230	-0.235	-0.354	-0.021
082/(278)	6.296	1.314	0.140	-2.061	-0.118	172/(188)	0.807	0.185	-0.189	-0.283	-0.017
084/(276)	6.306	1.320	0.094	-2.068	-0.119	174/(186)	0.606	0.139	-0.143	-0.213	-0.012
086/(274)	6.308	1.324	0.049	-2.073	-0.119	176/(184)	0.404	0.093	-0.095	-0.142	-0.008
088/(272)	6.302	1.326	0.003	-2.075	-0.119	178/(182)	0.202	0.046	-0.048	-0.071	-0.004
090/(270)	6.289	1.327	-0.044	-2.075	-0.119	180/(180)	0.000	0.000	-0.000	-0.000	-0.000

Table 42: Dates and fractional Julian day numbers of the first new moons of the years 1900-2099 CE.

01/1/1900	2415021.07	18/1/1950	2433299.83	06/1/2000	2451550.25	23/1/2050	2469829.70
20/1/1901	2415405.10	07/1/1951	2433654.33	24/1/2001	2451934.05	12/1/2051	2470184.29
09/1/1902	2415759.37	26/1/1952	2434038.42	13/1/2002	2452288.07	02/1/2052	2470538.61
28/1/1903	2416143.18	15/1/1953	2434393.09	02/1/2003	2452642.34	19/1/2053	2470922.45
17/1/1904	2416497.16	05/1/1954	2434747.59	21/1/2004	2453026.37	08/1/2054	2471276.44
05/1/1905	2416851.26	24/1/1955	2435131.53	10/1/2005	2453381.00	27/1/2055	2471660.25
24/1/1906	2417235.21	13/1/1956	2435485.62	29/1/2006	2453765.09	16/1/2056	2472014.42
14/1/1907	2417589.74	01/1/1957	2435839.60	19/1/2007	2454119.66	05/1/2057	2472368.90
03/1/1908	2417944.40	19/1/1958	2436223.43	08/1/2008	2454473.97	24/1/2058	2472753.00
22/1/1909	2418328.50	09/1/1959	2436577.73	26/1/2009	2454857.81	14/1/2059	2473107.66
11/1/1910	2418682.98	28/1/1960	2436961.75	15/1/2010	2455211.80	03/1/2060	2473462.19
30/1/1911	2419066.89	16/1/1961	2437316.39	04/1/2011	2455565.88	21/1/2061	2473846.12
19/1/1912	2419420.95	06/1/1962	2437671.03	23/1/2012	2455949.82	10/1/2062	2474200.23
07/1/1913	2419774.94	25/1/1963	2438055.06	11/1/2013	2456304.31	29/1/2063	2474584.01
26/1/1914	2420158.78	14/1/1964	2438409.35	01/1/2014	2456658.97	18/1/2064	2474938.03
15/1/1915	2420513.10	02/1/1965	2438763.37	20/1/2015	2457043.05	06/1/2065	2475292.30
05/1/1916	2420867.69	21/1/1966	2439147.16	10/1/2016	2457397.56	25/1/2066	2475676.33
23/1/1917	2421251.81	10/1/1967	2439501.26	27/1/2017	2457781.49	15/1/2067	2476030.96
12/1/1918	2421606.44	29/1/1968	2439885.18	17/1/2018	2458135.58	05/1/2068	2476385.61
02/1/1919	2421960.84	18/1/1969	2440239.70	06/1/2019	2458489.57	23/1/2069	2476769.64
21/1/1920	2422344.71	07/1/1970	2440594.36	24/1/2020	2458873.41	12/1/2070	2477123.96
09/1/1921	2422698.72	26/1/1971	2440978.45	13/1/2021	2459227.70	01/1/2071	2477478.00
28/1/1922	2423082.50	16/1/1972	2441332.94	02/1/2022	2459582.26	20/1/2072	2477861.78
17/1/1923	2423436.61	04/1/1973	2441687.14	21/1/2023	2459966.36	08/1/2073	2478215.85
06/1/1924	2423791.03	23/1/1974	2442070.95	11/1/2024	2460321.00	27/1/2074	2478599.77
24/1/1925	2424175.10	12/1/1975	2442424.94	29/1/2025	2460705.02	16/1/2075	2478954.26
14/1/1926	2424529.77	01/1/1976	2442779.11	18/1/2026	2461059.31	06/1/2076	2479308.92
03/1/1927	2424884.35	19/1/1977	2443163.08	07/1/2027	2461413.34	24/1/2077	2479693.03
22/1/1928	2425268.33	09/1/1978	2443517.66	26/1/2028	2461797.14	14/1/2078	2480047.54
11/1/1929	2425622.50	28/1/1979	2443901.76	14/1/2029	2462151.23	03/1/2079	2480401.77
29/1/1930	2426006.29	17/1/1980	2444256.39	04/1/2030	2462505.61	22/1/2080	2480785.57
18/1/1931	2426360.28	06/1/1981	2444610.80	23/1/2031	2462889.67	10/1/2081	2481139.55
07/1/1932	2426714.48	25/1/1982	2444994.69	12/1/2032	2463244.33	28/1/2082	2481523.38
25/1/1933	2427098.46	14/1/1983	2445348.71	01/1/2033	2463598.93	18/1/2083	2481877.65
15/1/1934	2427453.06	03/1/1984	2445702.73	20/1/2034	2463982.91	07/1/2084	2482232.21
05/1/1935	2427807.72	21/1/1985	2446086.61	09/1/2035	2464337.11	25/1/2085	2482616.33
24/1/1936	2428191.80	10/1/1986	2446441.01	28/1/2036	2464720.92	15/1/2086	2482970.97
12/1/1937	2428546.18	29/1/1987	2446825.06	16/1/2037	2465074.91	04/1/2087	2483325.41
01/1/1938	2428900.28	19/1/1988	2447179.72	05/1/2038	2465429.07	23/1/2088	2483709.30
20/1/1939	2429284.06	07/1/1989	2447534.31	24/1/2039	2465813.06	11/1/2089	2484063.34
09/1/1940	2429638.09	26/1/1990	2447918.30	14/1/2040	2466167.63	30/1/2090	2484447.11
27/1/1941	2430021.96	15/1/1991	2448272.48	02/1/2041	2466522.30	19/1/2091	2484801.19
16/1/1942	2430376.39	04/1/1992	2448626.47	21/1/2042	2466906.36	09/1/2092	2485155.56
06/1/1943	2430731.02	22/1/1993	2449010.28	11/1/2043	2467260.77	27/1/2093	2485539.63
25/1/1944	2431115.14	11/1/1994	2449364.46	30/1/2044	2467644.65	16/1/2094	2485894.29
14/1/1945	2431469.71	01/1/1995	2449718.95	18/1/2045	2467998.68	06/1/2095	2486248.90
03/1/1946	2431824.00	20/1/1996	2450103.02	07/1/2046	2468352.69	25/1/2096	2486632.90
22/1/1947	2432207.84	09/1/1997	2450457.68	26/1/2047	2468736.58	13/1/2097	2486987.11
11/1/1948	2432561.83	28/1/1998	2450841.75	15/1/2048	2469090.97	02/1/2098	2487341.11
29/1/1949	2432945.62	17/1/1999	2451196.14	04/1/2049	2469445.59	21/1/2099	2487724.89

Table 43: Lunar-solar eclipse functions. The arguments of $\delta\beta_1$, $\delta\beta_2$, and $\delta\beta_3$ are $M_M$, $M_M$, and $M_S$, respectively. $\delta\beta_1$, $\delta\beta_2$, and $\delta\beta_3$ take minus the values shown in the table if their arguments are in parenthesies.

Arg. ($^\circ$)	$\delta\beta_1(')$	$\delta\beta_2(')$	$\delta\beta_3(')$	Arg. ($^\circ$)
000/360	3.128	0.856	0.267	(180)/(180)
002/358	3.126	0.855	0.267	(178)/(182)
004/356	3.120	0.854	0.267	(176)/(184)
006/354	3.111	0.851	0.266	(174)/(186)
008/352	3.097	0.847	0.265	(172)/(188)
010/350	3.080	0.843	0.263	(170)/(190)
012/348	3.059	0.837	0.261	(168)/(192)
014/346	3.035	0.830	0.259	(166)/(194)
016/344	3.007	0.822	0.257	(164)/(196)
018/342	2.975	0.814	0.254	(162)/(198)
020/340	2.939	0.804	0.251	(160)/(200)
022/338	2.900	0.793	0.248	(158)/(202)
024/336	2.857	0.782	0.244	(156)/(204)
026/334	2.811	0.769	0.240	(154)/(206)
028/332	2.762	0.755	0.236	(152)/(208)
030/330	2.709	0.741	0.231	(150)/(210)
032/328	2.652	0.726	0.227	(148)/(212)
034/326	2.593	0.709	0.222	(146)/(214)
036/324	2.530	0.692	0.216	(144)/(216)
038/322	2.465	0.674	0.211	(142)/(218)
040/320	2.396	0.655	0.205	(140)/(220)
042/318	2.324	0.636	0.199	(138)/(222)
044/316	2.250	0.615	0.192	(136)/(224)
046/314	2.173	0.594	0.186	(134)/(226)
048/312	2.093	0.573	0.179	(132)/(228)
050/310	2.010	0.550	0.172	(130)/(230)
052/308	1.926	0.527	0.165	(128)/(232)
054/306	1.838	0.503	0.157	(126)/(234)
056/304	1.749	0.478	0.149	(124)/(236)
058/302	1.657	0.453	0.142	(122)/(238)
060/300	1.564	0.428	0.134	(120)/(240)
062/298	1.468	0.402	0.125	(118)/(242)
064/296	1.371	0.375	0.117	(116)/(244)
066/294	1.272	0.348	0.109	(114)/(246)
068/292	1.172	0.321	0.100	(112)/(248)
070/290	1.070	0.293	0.091	(110)/(250)
072/288	0.967	0.264	0.083	(108)/(252)
074/286	0.862	0.236	0.074	(106)/(254)
076/284	0.757	0.207	0.065	(104)/(256)
078/282	0.650	0.178	0.056	(102)/(258)
080/280	0.543	0.149	0.046	(100)/(260)
082/278	0.435	0.119	0.037	(098)/(262)
084/276	0.327	0.089	0.028	(096)/(264)
086/274	0.218	0.060	0.019	(094)/(266)
088/272	0.109	0.030	0.009	(092)/(268)
090/270	0.000	0.000	0.000	(090)/(270)